A dim future for the West
More on the Population Implosion situation from the International Herald Tribune:
Europe, East and West, wrestles with falling birthrates
By Elisabeth Rosenthal
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2006
Pushing their newborns in strollers along Na Prikope, Prague's main shopping street, Jelena Heitmankova and her two friends get emotional as they describe their desire for more children. But, nearing 30, they know their broods will probably end with the one child each has now.
"Having children here is expensive, and there is no structure: no services, no baby-sitting," said Heitmankova, who is on maternity leave. "It would be nice if there were still nurseries, like when I was a child," she said, referring to free Communist-era day care centers.
Birthrates have reached a historic and prolonged low in European countries, from Italy and Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic, straining pension plans and depleting the work force across the Continent.
The number of elderly already exceeds the number of young people in many countries, and the European Union's executive arm, alarmed by the trend, estimates that the bloc will have a shortfall of 20 million workers by 2030 if the low birthrates persist.
Immigration from non-European countries, already highly contentious across the EU, would not be sufficient to fill the gap even if Europe's relatively homogenous countries were willing to embrace millions of foreign newcomers, experts say.
"You just can't integrate so many people," said Katharina von Schnurbein, the EU spokeswoman for employment and social affairs. "It is a very sensitive issue."
Throughout Europe, women have delayed having children, or opted out entirely, as they have become more educated and better integrated into the labor market. But the free fall in births is most precipitous and most recent here in Eastern Europe, where Communist-era state incentives that made it economical to have children - from free apartments to subsidized child care - have been phased out even as costs have skyrocketed.
New vibrant market economies provide young people with tantalizing alternatives to family. Lukas and Lenka Dolansky, both journalists, would like a sibling for their 3-month- old son, but they are not sure that will be practical. "We want to go abroad, study, have a career," Lukas said. "Our parents didn't have those opportunities."
The result is birthrates that are the lowest in the world - and the lowest sustained rates in history: 1.2 per woman in the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Latvia and Poland, far below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain population.
West European countries are also suffering: Greece, Italy and Spain have had rates of 1.3 and under for a decade.
But Eastern Europe is faced with a desperate double whammy: plummeting birthrates combined with emigration to Western Europe for work, made easier by membership in the EU.
As countries begin to feel the demographic crunch, Europe's "birth dearth" [or what I refer to as "Population Implosion"] is becoming a political issue. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany pushed through a package of family-boosting incentives for working women in June, and President Vladimir Putin warned in May that Russia's population decline was critical. Almost all governments are increasing baby bonuses.
this is why the illeagal immigration issue IS A MOOT POINT:
As birthrates plummet across the developed world, politicians and demographers have been pondering whether immigration can provide the population boost needed by many countries to supplement shrinking labor forces and rebalance aging populations.
From Spain and Canada to the Czech Republic and Singapore, countries are creating and amending immigration laws to attract certain foreigners in order to expand their populations. New immigrants not only add to population numbers but also tend to have more children, providing aging societies with a much-needed infusion of youth.
In Europe, Spain has been spared the worst consequences of extraordinarily low birthrates, at least for now, by a massive influx of immigrants who have helped fuel the country's economic expansion.
There were 3.5 million immigrants in 2005, up from 900,000 in 2000, according to the Spanish National Statistics Institute. By far the greatest number were from Latin America, and so meshed naturally with Spain's language, religion and culture.
Elsewhere, countries like Canada and Australia have in recent years successfully recruited skilled immigrants to buttress their populations, providing fast-track citizenship for foreigners with university education, talent or cash to invest in the country.
what the future of Europe could look like in 50-100 years:
GENOA There are hundreds of stores in the Fiumara Mall - Sephora, Elan, Lavazza Café. But in a nation long known for its hordes of children, there is not one toy store in the sprawling mix, and a shiny merry-go-round stands dormant.
"This is a place for old people," said Francesco Lotti, 24, strolling with his fiancée in Genoa's medieval old town. "Just look around. You don't see young people." Even for people their age, "there are not many places - no clubs, for example." Playgrounds? He looks quizzically at his fiancée. They can count them on a few fingers.
While all of Europe has suffered from declining birthrates, nowhere has the drop been as profound and prolonged as in this once gorgeous Mediterranean city, the capital of Italy's graying Liguria region. Genoa provides a vision of Europe's aging future, displaying the challenges that face a society with more old than young, and suggesting how hard it will be to reverse the downward population spiral.
There are no longer children playing in the streets here, nor many family- friendly restaurants. Schools have closed for lack of students. Hospitals are overworked with the elderly. Medical costs are bankrupting the government. And the fewer the children in a society, the harder it becomes to have them.
"This is a society that was based on family ties and now there are few families," said Daniela Del Boca, a professor of economics at the University of Turin. "It's easy to bemoan low birthrates, but it's hard to have good ideas to solve the problem."
Most Genovese today have only one child or none and are unapologetic about the choice. The birthrate (7.7 births per 1,000 people) was about half the death rate (13.7 per 1,000) in Liguria last year, a frightening ratio even by European standards.
More problems we can be thankful for
